Overarching Societal Patterns 1: The Appeal to Tradition

I spend a lot of time meditating about the overarching patterns that are building as our society moves forward. My thoughts are generally in an attempt to seek out arbitrage opportunities. Finding future arbitrage opportunities is one of my obsessions. Here is the first installment of Overarching Societal Patterns.

The logical fallacy of “The Appeal to Tradition” is probably weaker today than it has ever been in human history. It does, however, still exist very strongly. Wikipedia defines the Appeal to Tradition as: “A common fallacy in which a thesis is deemed correct on the basis that it is correlated with some past or present tradition. The appeal takes the form of “this is right because we’ve always done it this way.” Anytime you hear someone say, “We do it this way because that is the way it’s always been done” they are committing a logical fallacy.

It’s very likely that for most of human history this fallacy didn’t even really need to be spoken. Generations of people passed without relative change. Hunting was always relatively the same; fishing was always relatively the same. People’s lives were always relatively the same for thousands of years. The amount of loss a person could incur by committing this fallacy was lower over history because the pace of change was slow. However, the world as it presently is changes more in five years than it did between years 0-500. As such, the penalty, and cost, for following the ways of the past has become higher than ever. World War 1 is a great example of the cost of The Appeal to Tradition.

World War 1 was one of the bloodiest conflicts ever recorded in human history. It left the European continent absolutely decimated. It is interesting to look at why the military casualties were so high. Oddly enough the appeal to tradition played a massive part in this carnage. The generals in both armies failed to recognize the change in war technology. As such they used historical strategies that were no longer efficient. This led to inappropriate era tactics paired with better warfare technology. The result was massive carnage. Men walked right into automatic gunfire. As the war went on old tactics were dismissed and new tactics took their place. As it happens, World War 1 was also a significant societal step forward as technology began to really increase the pace of change. The appeal to tradition was costly for our ancestors but it has the potential to be incredibly costly for us. World War 1 is one such example; but how about an example in normal/everyday life.

Lighted intersections are much, much, much less efficient than traffic circles. Intersections result in more accidents, more fatal accidents, higher fuel efficiency, and higher time efficiency. Plus they’re prettier. We as a society know this. Why do we continue building intersections? Obviously there are specific instances in which an intersection makes sense; however, the average intersection could easily be made more efficient with a traffic circle. The angles at which accidents happen in intersections are much more prone to be fatal. Head to head collisions and blindsides lead to thousands of deaths per year. Why don’t we save those lives by installing a traffic circle instead? Because we know intersections, it is just how we’ve always done it.

There are hundreds more examples of how the appeal to tradition is hurting us; both individually and as a society. The appeal to tradition is still causing thousands of needless death per year. Each appeal to tradition is an arbitrage opportunity waiting to be taken advantage of by a business man. Let’s help move humanity forward by finding a solution these important problems. It will take a lot of effort to move people to a new way but that effort is worth it if you find the right opportunity.

Quote Meditation #3

“Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.” – Donald Trump

In book 4 of The Wealth of Nations Adam Smith talks about the attempt to increase wealth through the acquisition of more and more currency by any means possible. During his time this is how wealth was believed to be achieved, acquisition only. As he speaks about this he likens currency to pots and pans. This idea of money being like pots and pans has the potential to shift anybody’s views when it comes to money. Imagining your bank account to be full of pots and pans really takes away the emotional confusion money often brings. You only need as many pots and pans proportional to how much you cook. The amount of money you need should be directly proportional to the projects you have going plus living expenses. I think the phenomenon Adam Smith touched on is what Mr. Trump is talking about. He realizes the value in having a nearly endless supply of pots and pans but that’s all they are, tools. He’s less concerned about amassing tools than he is about using the tools he already has to win. He’s less concerned about his amount of pots and pans and more concerned about what those say about him as a person.

You can say what you want about Mr. Trump but one thing you can’t call him is stupid. The mental dexterity necessary to amass $10 billion is unhuman. Maybe even more dexterity than is required of a President (haha). It’s also worth noting that if he were in this for the pursuit of money he would have stopped accumulating a long time ago. The fact that he has kept going shows that he’s in it for “the game” and perhaps his mindset is one we should attempt to emulate. If you’re playing to win you’re going to be willing to take a lot more risks than those who are just playing for cash. We already know that risk is the key to self-improvement. The truth is that we really need very little money to live. Living frugally is worth winning your game of choice. That frugal living frees the rest of your energy to be expended on “the game.”

Often times it seems people are overly obsessed with money for the sake of money. They don’t really think about what money is or why it exists. They just want it because society has deemed it valuable. It seems like every rapper ever has put that quest for money at the top but fails to give any legitimate reason about why they want it other than the fact that others want it. Remember that money should be a tool or a measuring stick with which you can improve or measure your performance. When speaking, Warren Buffet sounds as though he accidentally amassed his wealth out of the pure desire to improve his own performance. Bill Gates wasn’t pursuing wealth when he created the Windows operating system, he just happened to stumble upon a cross-section of something that he enjoyed and a lot of people needed.

In showbiz there is a saying: “One for The Man, then one for the soul.” Michelangelo is a good example of this saying. He did work for The Man (Mr. Medici) before he could branch out and do his own work. That is what we much do. Step one, serve and escape the man. Then prepare your place at the table and prepare to play the game with Mr. Trump. Not for the money, but because you love the game.